Instrument Panel
Who this is for:
The Instrument Panel is for owners and leaders across aviation, aerospace and space, from MRO shops, FBOs and charter operators to parts suppliers, manufacturers and the firms that serve them.
It reads two things that touch almost every business in the industry: whether the airlines and operators at the top of the chain are making money, and how tight the parts and manufacturing supply chain is.
Your niche may not move one-for-one with these gauges.
Most of this industry runs downstream of the same few forces, though:
1. Fuel 2. Traffic 3. Credit 4. Parts
When those shift, the pressure tends to reach your customers and your pipeline sooner or later.
Use the Instrument Panel as an early read on the conditions around you, not a verdict on your own business.
"The eagerness to learn how and why every piece of equipment works is everything." Chuck Yeager, Yeager: An Autobiography (1985)
Squeeze
July 2026, 3-month average. About 2.5 months behind.
Squeeze
September 2026 early read. Typical error ±2 points; 95% range 24 to 34. Official reading due Dec 9.
Normal
August 2026, 3-month average. Backlog 35 months, book-to-bill 1.27.
Below 45 = squeeze | 45 to 55 = normal | Above 55 = tailwind
As of October 27, 2026.
Are Your Customers Making Money?
AeroBaron's KEY TAKEAWAY:
1. The official L/D reading is 36.1 for July and the September early read is 29.0 (AeroBaron, from BTS, EIA and BLS data), the lowest since early 2009.
2. Plan Q4 and Q1 assuming slower approvals and harder pushback on price from airline and operator customers.
3. Action: Review payment terms and open quotes with your top 10 customers this month, and lead every proposal with the cost it saves them.
What's Squeezing Them?
AeroBaron's KEY TAKEAWAY:
1. This is a cost problem, led by fuel: October jet fuel is averaging $4.46 a gallon so far (EIA Gulf Coast, through Oct 20), about 112% above the same days a year ago.
2. Customers with big fuel bills tend to cut discretionary spend first, so plan for projects that aren't safety-critical to slip into next year.
3. Action: Add a fuel or cost escalator to any quote that runs into 2027, and re-price open bids older than 60 days.
How Tight Is the Supply Chain?
AeroBaron's KEY TAKEAWAY:
1. Supply is normal at 51.0 for August (Census and BLS data): backlog covers 35 months, book-to-bill is 1.27 and parts prices are up about 1.7%.
2. Scarcity won't carry your pricing next quarter, so plan to win on turn time and reliability.
3. Action: Put your real turn times and on-time rate in every quote, and on your website where buyers and AI search can find them.
Where We Are on the Map
AeroBaron's KEY TAKEAWAY:
1. July puts us at L/D 36.1 and Hangar Pressure 50.9, which means customers are squeezed on cost but not short on parts.
2. Buyers can shop around right now, so plan for work to go to suppliers they already trust and can find fast.
3. Action: Call your top accounts before they start shopping, and check what AI search says when a buyer asks for a supplier like you.
Get the full briefing every Tuesday
The Instrument Panel readings plus three fronts every owner is fighting: growth, wealth and exit. Each comes with a decision for your next quarter, straight to your inbox.
Building in aviation, aerospace or space? We're opening the AeroBaron directory now. Founding listings get the most visibility at launch.
These gauges read current conditions; they are not forecasts.
Sources: BTS, EIA, BLS, Census, TSA and FRED.
Not investment, tax or legal advice.